The new momentum in the aviation market is becoming clearer
In 2024, Groupe ADP welcomed nearly 364 million passengers across its entire network of airports, an 8.1% increase over 2023. After the abrupt halt in growth in air travel as a result of the pandemic, 2024 brought clear evidence of new momentum: Paris-Orly and Paris-Charles de Gaulle airports crossed the symbolic 100 million passenger mark – returning to the pre-pandemic levels of 2017 – and the international market continues to show strong growth, particularly in Asia.
Global air traffic on the rise and seeing a transformation
Globally, traffic at Groupe ADP airports has returned above pre-Covid levels, driven by growth in Asian and emerging markets.
According to IATA1, the number of air passengers hit a record high in 2024. Thanks to strong travel demand, IATA estimates that global traffic could reach 7.9 billion passengers by 2043, up from 4.5 billion in 2019.
according to IATA (vs 4.5 M in 2019)
This growth is attributable to sociological and demographic trends, and regional urbanization and metropolitan development in particular: more than 50% of the world's long-haul traffic passes through 40 large megacities. Growth is also being driven by a shift in demand from mature economies to Asia and emerging markets, connected with strong middle-class growth and a new appetite for travel. In 2015, 1 in 14 of the world’s tourists were Chinese, and that percentage is expected to increase to 1 in 5 by 2030.
(vs 1/14 in 2015)
Source: IATA (International Air Transport Association)
This growth in worldwide air traffic is ringing in a number of changes. Structurally, legacy airlines are increasingly competing with Gulf and Middle Eastern airlines that are capturing intercontinental traffic and connections to Asia and Africa. They face competition from low-cost airlines in the short/medium-haul market: low-cost airlines now account for 45% of the intra-European market.
Source: IATA
More moderate growth in Parisian traffic over the long term
In 2024, Paris-Charles de Gaulle welcomed nearly 70.3 million passengers, an increase of 4.3% over 2023, making it France's largest airport and the second largest in Europe. With a connection rate of 20.3% in 2024, the Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport transfer hub is Europe’s third largest hub for the availability of global connections and the largest for intercontinental traffic. Paris-Charles de Gaulle serves more than 300 cities worldwide.
At Paris-Orly, traffic grew 2.6% compared to 2023. For the two Parisian airports, this represents a 3.7% increase in traffic.
Nonetheless, compared to the period prior to 2020, when traffic doubled approximately every 15 years, the pace of growth is moderate. We are seeing a gradual shift in the traffic mix towards international traffic, which is more profitable. This change can be attributed to a more judicious use of air travel and a shift to other means of transport: train travel is increasingly preferred for short distances. In addition, the share of short and medium-haul flights (domestic and Schengen traffic) is decreasing in favor of international routes (outside Europe).
In other European countries and North America, growth in air traffic is similarly more modest than in Asia.
Growth prospects for Groupe ADP in the coming years
With regard to long-term traffic growth forecasts, the Paris airports anticipate an increase of 1-1.5% annually between 2025-2050. Passenger traffic in 2025 is expected to increase by anywhere from 2.5% to 4.0% over 2024 levels.
TAV Airports, representing 15 international airports, posted continued growth in 2024, with 106.5 million passengers for the year – an 11.5% increase over 2023 – and expects traffic to continue its upward track. With the opening of its new terminal in June 2024, Almaty airport has more than doubled its capacity (to more than 14 million passengers per year). Additional capacity-building work continues in Ankara, and expansions to Antalya’s Terminal 2 (international and domestic) opened on April 17.
GMR Airports, now listed on the Indian financial markets, has successfully completed its corporate restructuring and is announcing major achievements at its airports: deliveries of capacity expansion projects at Delhi and Hyderabad, as well as a concession agreement signed at Nagpur airport. With 117.6 million passengers (9.1% growth) in 2024 and seven airports in three countries, GMR Airports is a strategic source of value creation for Groupe ADP and also a driver for seizing growth opportunities in India and Asia.
The share of international operations at Groupe ADP is rising: its contribution to operating income is expected to increase from 15% in 2019 to between 25% and 35% in 2025 and approach nearly 50% in 2035, before taking into account any new growth campaigns.
(1) The International Air Transport Association (IATA), comprising more than 240 airlines worldwide, is an industry leader in forecasting.